As one of the worst years for home sales draws to a close, real estate leaders have a message for agents and consumers: Get ready for January.
“Come the first of the year, I think things will take off,” Anthony Lamacchia, CEO and founder of Lamacchia Realty, told a room of residential real estate professionals at NAR NXT, the National Association of Realtors’ largest meeting of the year.
On day two of the NAR convention at the Boston Convention & Exhibition Center, Lamacchia and eXp Realty CEO Leo Pareja took the stage to give attendees their forecast for the next few months in the residential real estate market.
Their presentation came just days after former President Donald Trump was re-elected to a second, non-consecutive term in the White House, and amid a challenging time for the industry. So far, 2024 is on track to be the slowest year for the sale of existing homes in the United States for the second year in a row.
In other words, it’s been a slow year for buyers, sellers and agents alike.
The lag in the industry’s performance is attributed to several disruptive factors, including elevated interest and mortgage rates, rising home prices, limited supply and the uncertainty leading up to the presidential election.
“2024 has been a very difficult year on many fronts,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said during a presentation at the conference. “We did not get the home sales recovery this year after an awful 2023.”
Looking ahead
With the election over, though, expect shifts in the market, Lamacchia said.
In the immediate aftermath, there could be some slowdown, especially for markets in more blue states where consumers are frustrated by the results and “holding back,” he said. But that would soon change.
“I am calling a bottom right now,” he said. “Right now we are in the bottom of this slowdown in the sales cycle.”
By the start of 2025, the upswing from that bottom will start to materialize, Lamacchia argued.
“Almost every January after a presidential election, things take off like a jet,” he told the audience. “Whether you are happy about the election or you are disappointed about the election, you should be ready to pounce because things are going to get extremely busy.”
Ahead of Lamacchia and Pareja’s presentation, NAR’s Yun estimated that 2025 sales of existing homes will increase by 9% and new home sales will increase by 11% compared to this year. Pareja took a similar stance, telling the crowd Saturday that he foresees a 10% increase in sales.
“The good news is, I do agree that we’ve probably bottomed out,” Pareja said. “This is good news for our industry.”
Ultimately, it will be more than just a post-election surge that drives housing sales up, according to Pareja and Lamacchia. After two years of historically slow activity, “it’s a numbers game” and there’s “pent-up demand,” Lamacchia said.
“People have needs,” he said.
Homes.com, part of CoStar Group, was a sponsor of the NAR show.
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