Doughnut chain Tim Hortons has long been a Canadian icon, a brand built on hockey and national identity as much as its coffee, often served with double cream and double sugar. Now that cold-weather menu is heading into the American South, trying to win over unfamiliar consumers.

The company plans to start adding about 50 franchised restaurants across the United States, including locations in Texas, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida, as it pushes beyond the northern border states that have long anchored its American business.

The move comes as U.S.-Canada relations remain rocky, with the Trump administration putting tariffs on Canadian goods and saying the country could be America’s 51st state. Canadians have responded with tariffs of their own, as well as a burst of patriotism, with citizens sporting T-shirts urging consumers to buy their nation’s goods.

The chain is synonymous with the Canadian cultural touchstone of hockey. Over 60 years ago, Tim Horton, a thick-set professional hockey player who patrolled the blue line with a crew cut and little more than a thin layer of padding, opened his first coffee-and-doughnut shop in Hamilton, Ontario.

Horton died in a car crash in 1974, but the chain he founded went on to become one of Canada’s most recognizable brands.

A half-century later, the expansion south is the latest chapter. The chain has made a decades-long effort to grow in the much larger U.S. market, adding six U.S. restaurants in 2023, 21 in 2024 and 30 in 2025 beyond those it closed, bringing its American footprint to 693 stores by the end of last year, according to Restaurant Brands International filings.

“Tim Hortons is so ubiquitous in Canada, there isn’t a lot of growth potential there other than same-store sales growing,” said David Ian Gray, a retail analyst and instructor at Capilano University School of Business.

The expansion faces challenges, including navigating a different country’s culture as well as competition from established chains like Starbucks, Dunkin’ and McDonald’s that are well-known in the U.S.

Canada remains highly profitable for parent company Restaurant Brands International, Gray added, but executives looking for meaningful growth are naturally drawn to the much larger U.S. market.

The chain’s American business remains heavily concentrated in states closest to Canada. At the end of 2025, Tim Hortons operated 253 restaurants in New York, 204 restaurants in Michigan and 132 restaurants in Ohio. Together, those three states accounted for most of its U.S. locations. Texas had 13 locations entering 2026, while Georgia had seven, Tennessee had three and Florida had one.

Tim Hortons reported same-store sales growth of 2.7% in Canada in 2025, compared with 2% in the U.S. The U.S. growth figure is encouraging, Gray said, though it is difficult to assess its significance without more detail on the underlying customer base.

Tim Hortons didn’t respond to CoStar News’ requests to comment.

wants to determine whether the success it has achieved in New York, Michigan and Ohio can be replicated in markets with fewer cultural and geographic ties to Canada.

The financial performance of Tim Hortons, or Timmy’s as it is often called in Canada, likely gives Restaurant Brands International more confidence to pursue growth south of the border, said Lisa Hutcheson, managing partner at retail strategy and consulting firm J.C. Williams Group.

Gray views the latest expansion as a measured experiment rather than a major rollout. Adding 30 to 50 locations represents a relatively small increase in the chain’s overall footprint and suggests management is seeking evidence that the concept can work outside its traditional strongholds.

The company also appears to be relying on experienced franchise operators rather than asking first-time owners to introduce the brand in unfamiliar markets. Proven multi-unit operators may be better positioned to quickly establish successful locations and generate meaningful data for the company, Gray said.

Even if the restaurants are well-run, breaking into consumers’ daily routines may prove difficult.

“Coffee is very much a habit. It’s part of your daily routine,” Hutcheson said. Consumers often stop at the same drive-thru every morning, and convincing them to switch will be one of Tim Hortons’ biggest challenges, she noted.

Success will likely come market by market rather than through broad nationwide expansion, added Hutcheson. The company will need to establish a foothold in individual communities before attempting larger-scale growth.

Gray agrees that location selection will be critical. In his view, success will depend less on brand recognition and more on securing highly visible sites with strong traffic and convenient access.

“The whole state doesn’t matter. What matters is whether you’re in the right place,” he said.

That reality highlights a challenge Tim Hortons does not face in Canada. South of the border, many consumers are unfamiliar with the brand and may view it as another coffee option competing in an increasingly crowded market.

The company’s Canadian heritage could still provide an advantage, Hutcheson said. Tim Hortons remains closely associated with Canada, and she sees opportunities to use that identity as part of the brand’s story.

“He was a hockey player. Hockey is still very strong in the United States,” she said. “I think if they lean into that, it’s part of their heritage.”